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Hurricane chances remain high
by Bill Clough
Aug 10, 2013 | 1149 views | 0 0 comments | 25 25 recommendations | email to a friend | print
BEEVILLE – Despite the low activity in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico so far, the hurricane forecast team at Colorado State University still is predicting an above-average season.

However, it has reduced the numbers slightly because of lower-than-expected sea temperatures in the Atlantic.

The team is calling for 18 named storms before the current season ends Nov. 30.

Of the 18, eight are forecast to become hurricanes; three are expected to be category three or higher.

“While the tropical Atlantic remains warmer than normal, it has cooled somewhat in the eastern portion of the basin,” says CSU forecaster Phil Klotzbach. “However, it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely.”

El Niño is typically associated with stronger vertical shear winds across the Atlantic which makes conditions less favorable for hurricanes to form.

The Atlantic basin has been in an active period for hurricane activity since 1995, the CSU teams notes. This season, it says, should be about 150 percent of the average season.

The team’s landfall predictions:

•U.S. Coastline — 64 percent

•U.S. East Coast — 40 percent

•Caribbean — 53 percent

•Gulf Coast — 40 percent

Bill Clough is a reporter at the Bee-Picayune and can be reached at 358-2550, ext. 122, or at beepic@mySouTex.com.
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